Straight-up NFL picks, Week 18: Pour one out for the Titans (2024)

2022 was the year that destroyed my faith in the Tennessee Titans. I’d assume Mike Vrabel would be able to break out the duct tape and patch his team back together en route to a playoff bid, much like he did in 2021 when Derrick Henry missed the bulk of the season but the Titans still managed to take home the AFC’s top seed.

Instead, this fall has been more like what happened after Tennessee made the playoffs last year. Expectations gave way to a depleted roster and Vrabel’s team plummeted back to earth. Now the Titans will start Joshua Dobbs in a de facto playoff game against a Jaguars team that:

• already beat them by two touchdowns, in Nashville, with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback,
• is in the midst of a four-game winning streak thanks in large part to the leveled-up play of Trevor Lawrence and
• hasn’t given up a touchdown since Week 15.

The Packers have regained the betting public’s faith thanks to a four-game winning streak that pushed them from 4-8 to a win-and-in playoff bid in Week 18. But those wins come with caveats.

Green Bay’s defense has been the driving force behind that surge, but has also been largely dependent on turnovers — it produced 12 in those four wins, including four apiece vs. the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings. Now they face a Lions offense with the second-lowest turnover rate in the league. Jared Goff hasn’t thrown an interception since the last time he saw the Pack in Week 9. Detroit has lost only one fumble in its previous five games.

The Lions boast a top five offense and can goad Aaron Rodgers into a shootout. But Rodgers hasn’t been his typically prolific self, in part because his team has taken early leads and opted to lean hard on its ground game to win the time of possession battle and exhaust opponents. If the reigning MVP has to throw the ball he certainly can, but from an efficiency standpoint he’s been good, but not great (and not as good as his Detroit counterpart):

Buuuut, it’s a night game at Lambeau Field with a playoff atmosphere. If it comes down to defenses I trust Green Bay more.

Even if I don’t totally trust Green Bay.

The Saints are in the midst of a three-game winning streak that will likely keep Dennis Allen employed for another year. The Panthers missed out on their chance to win the NFC South last week, but still have something to fight for; interim head coach Steve Wilks.

Wilks took over after Matt Rhule was fired and has gone 5-6 in his audition to take over the Panthers (Rhule, for comparison, had won five of his previous 21 games). He’s emerged as a legit contender to move up from interim to full-time. More importantly, his players love him and will fight through what’s otherwise a meaningless game if it means helping him get the job.

New Orleans’ has a stout passing defense (seventh in the DVOA ranks) but has struggled against the run (19th). That’s a bad sign against a Carolina team that would like nothing more to dial up a service academy playbook and hand the ball off 45 times. The Panthers were undone last week by three turnovers. The Saints have forced 12 all season, the lowest mark in the NFL.